The Ides is the day in the middle of the month, near enough. It might happen before then. After (I think) December 7th, there is less than six months to the general election.
I picked up a snippet of information in passing, probably on Twitter which I mostly scan-read and search for photos to caption. Apparently, if there is less than six months to a general election, an MP switching parties does not automatically trigger a by-election.
Triggering a by-election is a risk. Not much of a risk if you’re Douglas Carswell. He’s so popular with his constituents he’d have to join the Push the Shit Back Up and Hold It party if he wanted to lose. Switching to UKIP and going through an election was only a minor risk for him.
Mark Reckless took a bigger risk. It paid off but he risked splitting the Tory vote and letting Labour win. However, that didn’t happen and Labour took a slapping too – although nowhere near as hard a slapping as the Lib Dems. I think it’s probably safe to discount the Lib Dems entirely as future coalition partners. Unless their remaining two MPs can agree on something.
Mutterings on Twitter hint that Philip Hollobone will move to UKIP soon. Will that trigger a by-election? Maybe. Or maybe it;s too close to that six-months-to-go deadline. I have no idea whether his constituents vote Tory or vote Hollobone. If they are voting for him then UKIP will have number three in the House of Wasters. If they are voting for the party then he could be in for an early bath.
As one of Old Holborn’s multiple personalities said on Twitter – these are not really UKIP MPs. They are the same MPs with a different badge on. They are already known to, and popular with, their constituents. A real UKIP MP will be one who defeats a sitting main-party candidate. Someone who has not defected from another party and who has not been an MP before.
This is not to belittle UKIP’s achievement. They are chipping away at the Triad and they have a few experienced MPs in place – they’ll need to have those there if they do drop in some newbies at the general election. Wastemonster’s grey suits will eat the newbies up if they don’t have some guidance. So it is a sensible approach and until the general election it’s the only way they’ll get any MPs in place.
There are rumours of quite a few Tory MPs and even some Labour ones who are considering jumping ship. Why aren’t they doing it? Is it all just rumour?
Maybe they are not as confident that they will be returned in a by-election with a purple badge on. In which case they could be out of a job before the next election.
However, if they wait until there is less than six months to go then they can stay in their jobs – as UKIP MPs – at least until that next general election. The next general election is likely to see a lot of marginals change hands and some of them could get into UKIP hands. There will be MPs on all sides wondering if their chances of still having a job next year are better served by staying in their current party or by switching to UKIP.
Oh yes, they are thinking of themselves, not us. Did anyone expect anything different?
I hope to see UKIP refuse a defector one day. They need to be sure they accept those who suport their aims, not just those looking for a change of gravy train. Otherwise they are just going to end up with an unmanageable mess.
I don’t think UKIP will form a government next year but they are already doing a good job of scaring the pants off the two and a half main parties. The Lib Dems are toast, no matter what happens, and they’ve brought it on themselves. The Tories and Labour are going to get a few kicks in the nuts at that next election and I’d be surprised if there aren’t a few new UKIP MPs in the next parliament. Quite possibly more than the Lib Dems will have left.
If there is going to be a mass defection to UKIP (realistically, probably no more than ten but I’m willing to be surprised) then it will happen, or at least start happening, mid-December.
What UKIP need to watch out for are those gravy train riders. It might look good to have more MPs but you really don’t want parasites now. They are going to cause you a lot of problems later.
Let the other parties keep their ticks and tapeworms. Pick out the good ones and leave the rest.
If there are so many defections that UKIP have a majority in Parliament before the election, I will laugh so hard I won’t be able to type for days. It’s really not likely but it so much fun to imagine the looks on the faces of the Cameroid, the Clegg and the Moribund One.
Well, early night beckons. Work tomorrow. My life is still an inverse version of everyone else’s and quite frankly, I like it that way.
underdogs bite upwards 
Great point about them only looking out for themselves. That’s the bottom line.
I have one of the most rock solid Lib Dem career politicians out there (parliamentary seat wise) and even he will probably lose his seat. He voted for the smoking ban too so good riddance to the prick.
LikeLike
In Scotland it looks like the SNP are going to pretty much wipe out the Libs and Labs at the next Wastemonster elections.
If that happens, Wastemonster will be wishing they’d given Scotland independence!
LikeLike
“Apparently, if there is less than six months to a general election, an MP switching parties does not automatically trigger a by-election. “
An MP can defect at any time without triggering a by-election and many have done so in the past. Unlike those MPs, Carswell and Reckless have shown courage and integrity by resigning, triggering a by-election, and thus asking their constituents for permission to represent them.
LikeLike
So they don’t have to worry about a by-election at all? In which case they might be hanging on to see which party best suits their gravy train.
LikeLike
“Let the other parties keep their ticks and tapeworms. Pick out the good ones and leave the rest.”
What if ticks & tapeworms are all there is..?
LikeLike
Parliament could do with a good de-lousing and a general flush through with worming tablets and disinfectant.
There wouldn’t be much left.
LikeLike
The more damage inflicted on the traditional main parties the better, although,let’s be honest, there are a lot of dross MPs out there. The main problem is the whip. The whip removes democracy from day to day politics.
In an ideal world there would be no political parties, there would only be independent MPs or MSPs. They would have to refer to their constituents prior to voting on anything. The Establishment will maintain the status quo until they find a better way. Westminster bun fights with shouting and gurning is no way to run a country. Neither is banging on desks as they do in Edinburgh.
Maybe mandatory direct electronic voting by the populace might work?
It would be great to get rid of all this PC crap and leave people alone to do their own thing.
LikeLike
XX In an ideal world there would be no political parties, there would only be independent MPs or MSPs. They would have to refer to their constituents prior to voting on anything.XX
As I read it, that is exactly how it works in China. (They have a referendum of the local cadres before the main arty meeting in Peking)
O.K, if that is YOUR ideal world, then keep it to yourself and don’t bother the rest of us with it.
LikeLike
Goodness. You may be familiar with “localism”? In Scotland we had that until 1975 when reorganisation removed all the small burgh councils and created districts and large regions. The loss to all the small burghs and the people living there was serious and lost much of what the community had built up over a long number of years.
Why did the small councils work? Because local people had an influence on what happened in their area. It was also the case that the council officials and the workforce had a vested interest in trying to do their best and get the best results for everyone.
Localism is ensuring that local people are involved with local politics and have a great involvement with their MP. I know little of the Chinese system beyond them saying they are communist whilst behaving as capatlists.
You’ll also be aware of just how politically involved and informed people in Scotland were pre Union. They thought nothing of going to see their MP and taking them to task if they weren’t doing what was asked of them by their constituents.
MY opinion is as valuable as yours, which I respect. You will be familiar with the dangers of trying to restrict or silence free speech?
LikeLike
So. Scotland was Maoist. What is your problem?
LikeLike
I have no problem.
“O.K, if that is YOUR ideal world, then keep it to yourself and don’t bother the rest of us with it.”
That sounds like you have a problem?
LikeLike
The difference was that in Scottish localism, the people could vote out the politicians if they didn’t listen.
In China, the politicians aren’t so easy to remove – and if they are removed, they are replaced with another Communist so there’s no change.
LikeLike
Actually, Leggy, there’s only 5½ months until the next general election, but according to the Ballot Box Blog,
Only in local government is there electoral law stating that a vacancy arising within six months of regular elections is not filled via a by-election. In the event of an MP’s death or resignation* close to a general election there is no law or even strong convention on what should happen.
He reckons that it is still possible to hold a by-election even in four months’ time, although he admits he might be wrong.
Stuart Wheller, spread betting millionaire and former UKIP Treasurer, claimed to Sky News a couple of months ago that,
The number of people [Tory MPs] that I took out to lunch was about eight. Now I’m not saying they are all thinking about crossing the floor. But equally there’s another eight I could have easily taken out to lunch or asked to come out to lunch and they may be thinking about it.
And there’s more,
[A] senior Ukip source told the World at One that the party was in discussion with up to ten Labour MPs about defecting to the party.
The source claimed that Ukip was talking to several “deeply unhappy” Labour MPs who were not in marginal seats and were unsatisfied with their party’s direction.
Mr Wheeler deserves special praise for trying to free us from the European Arrest Warrant the other day after bringing a judicial review against the Office of the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary, but he failed and the traitorous Tories are signing us back up to it and a whole load of other EU crime and justice measures.
But it is the most exciting time in politics that I can remember. Pundits are predicting all sorts of possibilities. The ‘England Calling’ blogmeister forecasts,
[A] motley coalition between Labour, the LibDems, the Greens and most poisonously the SNP, who could well return 20-30 MPs to the Commons.
If the reports of a projected Labour “wipeout” in Scotland are to be believed (which I don’t) it could be well over thirty.
Oily Al has not ruled out standing as an MP, so it is not impossible that he could become Norman Clegg to Ed Miller Band’s Dai Cameroid.
It might be worth watching the all-night election programmes from behind the couch.
The thought of an outright UKIP win is delicious. The Establishment would probably bring tanks onto the streets and install a military government (for fear of UKIP endangering the country) until another election could be held – one in which we chose the “correct” candidates, with UKIP banned.
LikeLike
If the SNP get enough Wastemonster MPs to actually have a direct effect on policy, the English are likely to start thinking about putting heads on spikes above Traitor’s Gate once again.
They are already very miffed indeed about Scottish MPs having a say on English matters. Imagine if there were 30 from a Scottish party who don’t even stand for election in England, who openly hate England and want to be separate from it – and they were in coagulation with Labour!
Interesting times ahead.
LikeLike