The Brexit Party, formed about a month ago, has no policies or manifesto and aside from Nigel Farage, is mostly composed of people we’ve never heard of. Surely they stand little chance against those long-established parties? Well, voter intentions for the EU elections currently look like this –
Every other party has rounded on the Brexit party with the usual claims of ‘far right, racist, etc.’ but they have spouted those names at so many people for so long, nobody cares any more. There is no evidence behind any of those claims and crucially, for both Labour and Tories especially, they have spent the last three years proving beyond a shadow of doubt that they cannot be trusted to tell us the truth.
Therefore, nobody is listening.
Lib Dems, Greens and of course the ever-changing Changey McChangeface Party have been consistent in their message. They don’t care about all that democracy stuff, they want to stop Brexit. They are therefore picking up a lot of the Remain voters who are sick of the piddling about the Tories and Labour are doing over the issue.
There will always be a sticky residue of tribal Tory and Labour voters, but they have royally screwed themselves this time. I have never before seen Tories polling below the Greens, and Labour, instead of surging ahead in triumph, have not even achieved half of the percentage vote of the month-old Brexit party with no manifesto and no policies!
The big surprise is the disappearance of UKIP into the remaining 9% of ‘others’. Why aren’t they picking up the Leave voters along with the Brexit party? They are in there with the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Independents etc. What the hell did UKIP do that went so very wrong?
It might be something to do with the selection of high profile candidates like Tommy Robinson (NHRN) and Sargon of Akkad, and the association with Count Dankula. I’m not at all bothered by any of those people. I wouldn’t vote for Tommy Robinson (NHRN), not because of any political thing, but because he’d be eaten alive in the EU parliament. Outspoken and confident he might be, but he would be a dog among wolves in that place. The other two are known for Twitter and other online activity and that’s about it. They have had less political involvement than Tommy Robinson (NHRN). They would need a strong UKIP presence just to stop them being ripped to shreds in Brussels. I wouldn’t vote for them because I wouldn’t inflict that on them.
A lot of people are uncomfortable with Tommy Robinson’s (NHRN) reputation. He hasn’t actually been any more criminal than the MPs we currently have, and has in fact been far less criminal than most of them. Yet, mud sticks, especially when the powers that be keep on flinging it at him. It makes people uneasy to be associated with a reputation like that, whether it’s real or not.
Anyway. Farage is continuously grilled about his manifesto. Why? Tories and Labour have proven absolutely that manifesto promises mean nothing at all. Why bother having one? Why pay to have a sheet of paper printed when you know nobody will read it and it’ll go straight from letterbox to recycling (here, it’s very satisfying to throw them in the fire).
Since MEPs have no lawmaking powers anyway, what does any EU party need with a manifesto? They can promise anything, knowing they will not be allowed to do it.
Farage has promised, basically, to be a spanner in the works of the EU parliament. That is all the Leave voters want him to do. Leavers do not want to be part of the EU parliament at all but since Tessie Maybe seems determined to keep us in this ridiculous club, throwing a spanner into the works is all we have left.
Oh it’s not just the UK. Expect spanners from France, Italy, Austria, several Eastern European states and more. We’re just likely to throw the biggest one in.
It would not surprise me to hear that the EU do not accept the results of this election and want to do it again. You know, that thing they just loudly criticised Turkey for doing. That thing the EU has done time and time again with referenda then get all hoity-toity when someone else does it.
The Tories, though… you have to laugh. A chronically misnamed MP called Cleverly has been on Twitter wondering how they can learn how Farage is picking up such support. And his bio lists him as Brexit minister. He doesn’t know? Really? How thick are the walls of that Westminster bubble? Are they opaque?
Three years to thrash out a trade deal and Tessie still can’t do it. Her deal is not a deal. It is a surrender. It would be far worse than just being in the EU, we’d be a slave country with no say at all in how we are governed. They can tax us to the hilt while lowering taxes in EU-compliant countries and there would be nothing at all we could do about it. Not a damn thing.
The EU clearly think the Lib Dems are their best hope for a Remain win. They have sent Darth Thermostat to shore up support for Vinnie the Wire on behalf of the Empire. I think that’s fantastic. He will do more damage to the Lib Dems that they could ever do to themselves, even if they brought back Little Clegg.
As it is, UKIP seem to have nosedived so the Brexit vote is all going to the only place it can go to. Tories and Labour are finding out just how low their sticky residue of tribalists can go but they have no clear direction for either Leave or Remain voters to follow.
Remain voters can go with Lib Dems, Greens or Changey McChangeface from the options in that list. Down in the 9% there will be Brexiters going for UKIP and Remainers, especially Scottish ones, going with SNP. The 9% parties will very likely cancel each other out.
In the main table though, you have a clear 34% for Leave against a clear 31% for Remain and 26% sticky residue of ‘vote for the rosette’. It would be close… but the Leave votes are all going to one party. The Remain votes are split between three.
Predictions based on those figures suggest Brexit Party will get almost half the UK seats on that EU parliament. Together with the spanners sent in by other countries, that could make quite a mess.
Remainers like Baldy Adonis and Alternating Current Grayling want things to go back to the way they were, but we all know the truth. There is no going back. Brexit has changed things. Forever.
We either leave in a clean break or we get eternal punishment as the Lucifer who fell from grace. They will never forgive us for trying. Either we become a totally non-EU country or we become a vassal state. There is no longer any other option.
They won’t trade with us? There will be shortages? Are you insane? I live in a rural area in the north of Scotland and you could visit for a week and not see the same Audi twice. You will lose count of Audis, Mercedes, Volkswagens, even Porsches. This is oil country. I went to Wales to buy my last car – I bought a 4×4 there – because the budget I had stretched to a second hand Nissan Micra in this part of the country. We have some really rich buggers around here.
Anyway. The shops are full of the products of other countries. Danish bacon. French beer and wine. Cheeses from all over the place. Fruit and vegetables (actually mostly from African and South American countries but hey ho, let’s pretend nothing exists outside the EU). We are, overall, one hell of a profitable market for EU countries because we buy massive amounts of their stuff.
If the political arm of the EU want to stop trade, it’s really not a big problem for us. We buy a lot more from the EU than we sell to them. They’ll crack first. They’ll have the CEOs of some very big European companies kicking in their doors. A trade embargo won’t last long.
What we need is a government who will say ‘Well, legally we left on the 29th March so it’s done. Want to talk about a sensible deal now? No? Well, just call us when you do.’
Only the Brexit party offer that option. The others claim to offer ‘remain’ but what they really offer is purgatory. There is no going back. Vassal state or free country are the only options the EU will allow.
And they don’t want to allow the latter.
The Tories were elected on a manifesto promise to deliver Brexit. So were Labour. Both parties have royally fucked it up and both parties clearly will never deliver that promise.
So, who cares about manifestos? They are full of lies anyway.
The Brexit party look likely to take around half, if not more, of the UK seats at this coming EU election.
I hope they make life hell for the EU hierarchy. It’s only fair. They want to make life hell for us.