Aye. We’re doomed.

Dooomed I tell ye.

Coronavirus is an interesting thing. Many people say it’s just flu. Some American idiot called Rush Limburger thinks it’s just like the common cold because it has a 98% survival rate. I rather suspect the common cold’s survival rate is tapping on 100%, you know.

Flu kills less than one percent of those it infects. It’s still a lot because it infects an enormous number every year. The new coronavirus has a kill rate somewhere between 2% (China’s claim) and 16% (Iran’s claim). It’s not as bad as Ebola. Get that and you have 50% chance of not melting into a bloody puddle. Coronavirus is not good either, it is killing people.

Coronavirus is not new. They’ve been around for ages. This variant is new, so new that absolutely nobody on the planet has any kind of natural immunity. The idea that it is a bioweapon is gaining ground. I think it might be but I don’t think it was deliberately released. It is a mutation that just happens to have the hallmarks of the ideal bioweapon and while it could have arisen by chance, I suspect it escaped containment.

How? I’ve visited China’s research facilities in the 1990s. The smoking area was in the cylinder store, one staff member was smoking while leaning on a hydrogen cylinder. They don’t give a shit about health and safety. I would not be at all surprised if staff in full hazmat suits called in a cleaner to clear up a spill, and the cleaner came in with a mop and an apron while smoking a fag.

Containment and safety, they really don’t get it. Look up YouTube videos of their bamboo scaffolding being put up. They do not care.

Giving the Chinese a level 4 containment facility was a very bad idea. This was bound to happen, sooner or later.

I saw a claim that the virus only lasts 6 hours outside the body. Bollocks. China is cremating everyone who dies of it. If it cannot survive for any length of time without a living host then bodies can be buried. There are plague pits under London from the late 1600s that cannot be dug into even now. Yersinia pestis, the plague bacterium, could still be active down there. It’s remarkably persistent.

If you have one that dies in six hours it’s not a problem. You also wouldn’t have to sterilise cash, which is what China is doing now,

This is not the common cold and it’s not flu. Its individual virus particles now outnumber the people on this planet and probably the stars in the galaxy. You cannot guarantee immunity even if you survive it. Mutation into a new form is simply a numbers game, most mutations will die but you only need one – and this virus population is big enough to throw up a dozen viable new nasties at once. Even if you survived the first wave, you have no immunity to the next ones.

Its rate of spread makes flu look like a rank amateur. Its incubation period is unprecedented. You can be infected and spreading it for at least two weeks before you get sick, Nothing else does that. You get a Salmonella infection and you’re shitting through every orifice within twelve hours. Norovirus and you’re crapping water in 24. Nothing takes this long.

This thing is engineered. I really don’t think it was meant to be released. It is a perfect bioweapon. It kills maybe 5 to 10 percent of those it infects, it overloads healthcare, it shuts down transport, it causes fear in the population, it makes cities seal themselves off as in Italy now, it makes your opponents fearful of each other. One cough and you’re ostracised.

But it wasn’t meant to happen. I really don’t think it was deliberate. It was a blunder, which is why China is covering it up as well as they can. It doesn’t matter now anyway, it’s out and we have to deal with it. This spreads faster than any disease I have ever heard of (and my career as a microbiologist was all about infectious disease), it has an incubation period that is incredible and a rate of infection I have never seen.

If it had been a deliberate experiment they would have tried it on a small town somewhere and locked it down.

This thing probably won’t kill you but it’s best avoided if you can.

16 thoughts on “Aye. We’re doomed.

  1. If it is the result of (idiotic & dangerous) laboratory modification, it’s rather surprising the release was in China. Because the ACE2 receptors it uses for cell entry are more numerous in Asians than Europeans. So releasing it in Wuhan was either a massive cock-up, or done by someone who would make Hitler seem benign in comparison.
    Despite all the media reports of aircraft restrictions from the infected zones, there are still very many “viral delivery systems*” flying – see http://www.flightradar24.com to be astounded!

    * an aluminium tube, full of recirculated air which is not filtered to trap 125nm viral particles, with 100s of symptom-less but infected people on board. I would expect many more outbreaks soon, traceable to airports & train stations.

    Liked by 3 people

    • If it is a bioweapon, I would suspect a blunder rather than a deliberate release. There would be no sense at all in China doing this to itself deliberately.

      If we go conspiracy theory route, it is reported that this (or the predecessor) virus was actually stolen from a Canadian laboratory and taken to the Chinese facility. That places the virus in Wuhan. All an attacker would need to do then is contaminate some food in Wuhan with the same virus and the Chinese facility will get the blame. It doesn’t need to be Canada behind it, the attacker could be a third party with access to one or other facility (or a third facility with the same pathogen in stock).

      There’s no evidence for any of that of course, it’s just a story. Maybe I’ll write it.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. If China has tried it out on humans, then their prison system, or their re education camps would be good. And what better than a loathed and severely violated sub species (to them) than the Uygur.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps

    Alternatively N Korea, for some reason we shall never know, has a history of experimenting on inmates of their concentration camps. Yet despite this one being totally isolated – and feared by the populace, they chose to shut it down.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoeryong_concentration_camp

    See the sub heading “human experimentation”.

    Liked by 1 person

    • At the bottom of ‘conditions’… I was right, in Panoptica, about using corpses as fuel for power stations. It’s already happening.

      Never imagine those camps can’t happen in Europe. Hitler was well on the way to that level.

      Liked by 1 person

    • There have been some reports that it contains a few genes from HIV, but there are also other reports saying no it doesn’t. So It’s still ‘maybe’.

      HIV is a retrovirus, the virus contains RNA but when it enters a cell it uses that RNA to make a DNA copy – and sometimes it then hides in the cell’s DNA for years before becoming active. Coronavirus doesn’t do that, it’s an RNA virus but it doesn’t turn itself into DNA, it just goes straight to the ribosomes.

      If it does turn out to contain some HIV genes, the only way that would happen is in a lab. Viruses don’t even breed with their own species, they can’t crossbreed in nature.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Let’s hope Legiron is only being cautious, and the bio-weapon hypothesis is wrong, and it’s just a rather more successful RNA virus than the usual ones. Speaking only personally, I’d not really want to eat all the things that Chinese people are reputed to eat.

      But then when you’ve suffered through history as the Chinese masses have – specially in the last century of torment – you’d probably find a way to eat anything. Even bats…

      …but how do you even catch bats?

      Liked by 1 person

      • I recently read some tinfoil hattery about it being a bioweapon – somewhat spolied by also claiming Spanish flu was bioengineered. That would have to have been bioengineered some 30 years before Watson and Crick, and some 70 years before anyone figured out DNA sequencing.

        If it does turn out to be a deliberately released bioweapon then whoever did it is an idiot. In this time of rapid transport, there is no way a bioweapon is going to stay where you put it.

        Liked by 2 people

        • I hate to direct anybody to reddit, but have a look at this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Covid2019/comments/fah93r/a_vaccine_isnt_coming/

          This sounds worse by the day. Especially in ‘we won’t ban flights or question people because that’s racist’ Canada – all our known cases so far are from Wuhan and Iran. We’re also in the midst of a blockade of trains and ships by lunatic environmentalists. Who are now carrying automatic weapons and derailing trains. Which appears to be cool with the government.

          We are SO fucked here.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Rhys, if you’re a Canadian, WTF is going on in your country? You’ve got punkboy Trudoodoo running you and doing you down 24/7, your universities are churning out all kinds of “anticolonialist” explosives in the form of “papers”, you’re allowing the GreeNazis to prevent you getting up your shale gas… what the hell is going on? You’re supposed to be a top first world classical-liberal minimal-statist nation… do say.

            Like

            • I’ve not seen it this crazy before. It’s like they’re trying to put us in the worst possible shape. Justin has said (seriously) that the form of government he most admires is the Chinese dictatorship.

              The liberals didn’t actually win the popular vote, so it’s a minority government. Why nobody has tabled a no confidence motion yet is beyond me. Completely.

              There was the three-week bender he went on around Christmas in Costa Rica, then back to the mess with the environmentalists which seems to only be getting worse, and of course we know that travel bans don’t help. Aaarrrgghh. Yes, a lot, a lot of people are going to get sick with this, but travel bans might have spread out the timing a bit, you know? So hospitals don’t get more overwhelmed than they already are and more businesses don’t grind to a screeching halt all at once. Store shelves were still okay-ish last time I went out, bar a lot of things missing because of the blockades, and back east people have run out of essentials like propane and chlorine, but who needs fuel or clean water anyway? At this point he deserves to be tried for treason.

              Like

  3. I’ve already blogged about the game changing nature of NOVID-19. https://delphiusdebate.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-gamechanger-novel-corona-virus.html

    The fact that governments and especially the US government aren’t taking it seriously is a concern. Sure, in the first wave it only kills 1%, but it has the ability to re-infect as there’s no natural immunity (yet), so the second wave kills 1%, then the third wave kills another 1%…..
    It goes on chipping away until there are no more hosts to infect. Eventually we’d have to live with it. If the whole world population becomes infected, then we’d have to live with the spectre of COVID-19 living in our bodies like Herpes, waiting for us to develop some condition that weakens us and BAM! COVID-19 rises and instead of giving us a cold sore, it kills us off.
    Your point about mutation is valid also. It could mutate into a more benign strain, or it could mutate into a more lethal one. The more hosts there are, the more likely a mutation will occur.
    The fact that the number of infections is increasing and the virus is not being isolated is of grave concern.

    Like

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