The Numbers Game

Work on the anthology is slow. There have been multiple disruptions in life this year – not just the virus, although that has meant that CStM and I no longer do the weekly shopping together. I have to go alone – and unsupervised – so there’s now a lot of whisky in the house. Fortunately, Aldi didn’t have any new power tools last week.

The virus hasn’t affected our lives all that much really. The only bad part is not being able to visit family and later, if the weather gets warm, we’d visit one of the two large castle gardens nearby. Well, we do have a decent garden so we can leave the parks to those who don’t.

Roobeedoo and I are working through the edits for the anthology. I’ll send them all out at once when they’re all done and then send out payments as soon as each author has agreed/modified the edits. It won’t be out for Easter but then this year, neither will Jesus.

Panoptica is something I have to get back into also. Most of what I’ve written so far is well on the way to being reality and I need to stay a little bit ahead. I’m thinking of dropping the first few chapters, start with the lead-in short stories and then start 10538’s story with the interview that sends him to the train. I need to use the flashbacks as his memory recovers but that repeats the beginning – so the answer is, lose the beginning and make the flashbacks more detailed.

Better get moving before they declare books non-essential.

One of the big questions lately is: ‘are they fiddling the death statistics?’ Yes they are, possibly with good reason.

Some countries are putting an underlying condition as cause of death to reduce the terror in the numbers. Others, like China, are simply lying. Yet others are attributing any death to coronavirus and inflating their figures.

Anyone testing positive for Flu Manchu and then dies is counted as a Flu Manchu death even if they died of a stroke or heart attack and had no flu symptoms. It’s a notifiable disease so it has to be on the death certificate but it isn’t necessarily the actual cause of death. Anyone showing symptoms is added to the list even if they aren’t actually tested. Deaths from flu and pneumonia are mysteriously low this year. They’re all counted as the new coronavirus.

The number of total deaths sounds scary, but people die all the time. It’s an inescapable consequence of being alive. Flu has a large death toll every year, usually among the elderly and the already sick, but nobody advocates lockdown every winter. They probably will now.

The kill rate is really not what makes this new one so dangerous. It’s trick is that it spreads so very easily and someone infected can spread it for a long time before they know they have it. Flu does cause a hell of a lot of cases and a lot of death but the symptoms appear in a few days. The new one can be spreading for weeks before it strikes the carrier and there is still the possiblility of long term asymptomatic spreaders. So, today, you might only have a few cases but two weeks from now, you could have a massive spike.

Around 20% of those cases will need hospitalisation and most of them won’t need intensive care. Most will recover with treatment. The thing is, 20% of a million cases is two hundred thousand in hospital. Unlike flu, that’s not spread over months. It’s likely to be spread over weeks. If you’re in there for three weeks recovering then the hospitals are soon full. Then you’re at the stage where doctors have to decide who gets treatment.

Lockdown is a way to avoid that. Limit the spread. There is no way to stop it but you can slow it down. The shrieking harpies of the press love to put out the total number of deaths as if they could have been avoided. The final number of infections and the final number of deaths from this virus will not change whether you let everyone loose or seal them in their homes. That final number, whatever it is, is going to happen no matter what.

The point of the lockdown is to ensure that the timing of that final number is extended. To ensure they don’t all arrive at hospital within a week, but show up over a period of months. Then the medical system can cope. If they all show up at once then the hospitals are overflowing, there aren’t enough medical staff (proper medical staff, not the managers with personal parking places and plush offices) and then the whole system collapses. It’s not just that there aren’t enough beds for coronavirus patients – in that scenario, there are no beds at all for all the other illnesses. So while the final number of deaths from coronavirus will be the same, the deaths from other illnesses will be much higher because they can’t be treated.

It is vitally important that people avoid too much contact at this time. You’re going to get it, no matter what, but I’m sure that if you are in the 20% who need hospital treatment you’d much rather there was space to treat you and you don’t have to die alone in a tent on the hospital lawn.

This is why they are inflating the numbers. They don’t need to in Germany, the German people are very strict and rigid when it comes to rules and will self-enforce them. The British and the Americans are a different matter. We don’t much care about rules. We follow the ones we like but tend to rebel against the ones we don’t like. So tell us to stay home. Week one, fine, we can lounge around and play games and treat it like taking a sickie. Week two, boredom sets in. Now we are at Easter weekend and there are people taking trips and having parties and barbecues…

Boris delayed lockdown as long as he could because he knew what the British are like. Trump isn’t pushing hard on lockdown yet because he knows what Americans are like. Neither country will put up with it for very long. Do it too soon and it will fail too soon. Also if they did it from day one, when it would be most effective, people would look around and say ‘Nothing is happening. This is all bollocks’ and then it will fall apart. And then they will not listen to a second lockdown when the shit hits the fan.

So the inflated figures are scary because they are meant to be. The British and American people will not take it seriously otherwise and then we’ll end up like Italy or Spain (or worse, like the mysteriously unreported Belgium). It’s scaring some sense into people, and while it does involve lying, I think it’s a sensible approach. Because you buggers will shrug it off otherwise.

There have been some mutterings that it is hitting black and Asian people harder and apparently that’s racist. Even viruses are racist now. Well, look at who mostly ignored the lockdown and still does. That’s why it’s hitting them harder. Considering the police are more interested in fining a lone person on a beach than breaking up mass gatherings of minorities, I do wonder if that’s part of the plan…

There are going to be idiots who insist ‘it’s a bank holiday, I’m having a barbecue/party/going to the beach’. There will be other bank holidays. You can skip just one. If you don’t you might have to skip them all.

I can’t even take an Easter egg to my granddaughter. I can’t visit my kids either. I can’t go to Wales to see my mother and brother and the rest of the family. CStM and I cannot visit her family in Denmark. Not that I would get on a plane at the moment anyway. It’s not fun but it is important.

Nothing will change the eventual number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths from this virus. Nothing. The daily death toll is just morbid reporting for clicks and to snipe at the government. In every country. All we can do is slow the rate of getting there so the health systems can cope. Otherwise the deaths from other diseases will be very much higher.

Oh, and this virus isn’t going away. I’m sure most people link the Black Plague with the Great Fire of London in 1666 but it started in the mid 1300s and lasted 400 years. It’s still endemic in a few places now. This virus will, likewise, not just vanish. When most people have at least some immunity it will recede into the background but like flu, it will return to kill more people every year.

So be scared of it. Stay home. Don’t let it surge into an overwhelming number of cases at once. Keep its spread slow, keep it at a level the health services can deal with.

Otherwise there won’t be any point continuing with Panoptica. You’ll be living it.

22 thoughts on “The Numbers Game

  1. Leggy, I’ve been meaning to email you to thank you for the mug and book. I’m keeping very busy here for the moment, until I run out of materials but the lockdown has been very handy as an opportunity to get stuff done. I’ll get stuck into the book as soon as I can, and thanks again.

    I’m seeing that plod hasn’t been too encouraging when it comes to the lockdown. Threatening to search people’s shopping trolleys for ‘non essential’ items and pestering them for being on their own front lawn doesn’t exactly bring people around to your way of thinking does it? All it does is spread confusion, so most people don’t know whether they are doing right or wrong. Another factor is that there are still hundreds of flights coming in from all over the world, whereas a lot of countries have closed their borders.

    I don’t think Boris has done a bad job really, but when this is over there needs to be a reckoning for the likes of PHE and the WHO.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. Thank you for writing a sensible commentary on the pandemic. I am tired of all the ill informed and biased speculation from the professional media. Here in New Zealand we have the same problem of those who think they are immortal and that they are immune from all illnesses.At least the government has closed the borders to all non citizens and those New Zealanders now returning are having to spend 14 days in quarantine before being allowed to go home.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Thank you for another helping of facts and sound advice. It seemed to take about a week for the holiday flights to and from Doncaster to finally fizzle out – Romania being the last, as I remember .Last weekend there was a flurry of extra freight 747s but it now seems to have settled down to the regular two or three. They have a very small flight crew and so don’t pose much of an international risk – unless the virus hangs on to the undercarriage . . . . PANIIIIICCCC!!!

    Liked by 3 people

  4. It’s not the virus itself that is scaring me, it happens in nature now and again. Deal with it the best you can, take lots of vitamin C (won’t stop you catching things but shortens how long you have it, or it works for me anyway), have faith in yourself and carry on.

    I remember reading a while ago your (lack of faith) as an apathist, really struck a chord as I feel the same but could not express it, you did that very well and for that I thank you as I can now explain my “faith” properly.

    One question if anyone can enlighten me as you all seem an inquiring bunch, I would be intrigued to know the answer – how did a member of a remote Amazonian tribe with no outside contact with anyone at any time catch, die and be confirmed of dying from covid-19 recently? Hell of a virus if it can travel hundreds of miles through jungle to infect someone who has no contact with the outside world. And if there is no outside contact who performed the test to get a positive for covid-19? Or did they drop it by parachute with instructions for the tribe to do it themselves?

    What does scare me are the following:

    – how quickly we became a world scared of even interacting with anyone else
    – how quickly it showed up how easily controlled the average person is
    – how easily people turn into snoopers and grasses
    – how quickly it became obvious the MSM are totally hopeless and just do stories that follow the agenda/narrative and how little it is questioned
    – the total destruction of small businesses (including mine for the 2nd time by a Government so I risk losing everything I worked for, pension investments, savings, everything again through no fault of my own, should of sat on my arse for 35 years on the dole and sick and I’d be better off in the long run) and the economies worldwide for no gain except control and power – now it’s been done once it will be done again unless things change
    – how gullible the average person is – no sign of our supreme leader in 3 weeks, one quick speech which was neither rousing or patriotic and that sounded more like a goodbye speech, few dubious phrases with double meanings when you read it fully, mentioned she fought in the war and got in a few words from a song and the sheeple are all flag waving.
    – how no-one seems to question that if 80% of people have no symptoms and over 50% of the population have already had the virus this makes the mortality rate pitifully low
    – how very few seem to question why absolute numbers are reported (scary) when percentages are not (not scary) e.g. the USA has more deaths than Italy – yes it does, scary number. It also has about 7 times the population so percentage wise it doesn’t (not scary) but both numbers are equally valid but one is shouted out, one ignored.
    – how it is being reported by more and more areas that about 75% of people covid-19 is killing would be dead in 3-9 months anyway and that unless things change there will be hardly a bump in the yearly mortality figures but not in the MSM
    – how even the BMJ is questioning the lockdown reasoning as it is in recently published articles (02 April) and these are not mentioned in the MSM
    – no-one questioning the enforced DNR – another friend of mine who has an ageing mother had her call him upset as her GP and called her asking if they could put DNR on her records if she became ill. This is not the first time I have been told this by friends and acquaintances. NHS heroes? More like a divide and conquer and have the “chosen” few above and apart from the plebs to me.
    – how no-one questions the double-reporting of deaths and there is no distinction between “with covid-19” and “from covid-19”.
    – the ever growing links to 5G and it’s effects on the human immune system
    – how all the research that shows any of the above is systematically ignored
    – no-one questions the empty hospitals – drove past a big area A+E yesterday twice, no ambulances, no staff, quiet as a grave, looked like it was closed, no stream of bodies, nothing.
    – how it became obvious that The Powers That Be are not the Governments round the world but unelected (Bill Gates, WHO, police Chiefs etc) – apart from possibly Sweden, Mexico, Iran, North Korea and Brazil
    – how quickly it became obvious the Police do not report to the Government but are becoming a law unto themselves and are losing the support of the people. I did once read a report on how the Police forces are private companies and will try and find it again, interesting reading. The one easily found on Companies house at the moment is for West Yorkshire Police. Why would their head office be listed as New Scotland Yard? And the initial directorships were interesting reading a few days ago.
    – the push for long-lasting draconian laws
    – the push from the WHO to go into homes and split up the old and children and take them away for protection as homes are the infection centres – find and watch the video from one of the top WHO staff from about the 30th March, it’s on youtube and maybe bitchute I think, watched it a few days ago but was using private browsing so don’t have it in my history for easy reference)
    – plans for total surveillance at all times
    – enforced vaccinations
    – everything controlled and rationed
    – the push for Agenda 21/2030 as this is the initial stages
    – stopping all travel except for the chosen like Tom Hanks and (spit) Megan and (spit) Harry

    I had very little faith in the average human and this “crisis” in unprecedented times has done nothing to improve or change that.

    I think that’s enough from me now, I’ll be on the dissident’s list for “self-isolation” if I carry on. I’ll have to stop these rants and I’ve not even had a beer today yet.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Amen! I’m glad I’m not the only one seeing past the narrative. I live in NY State. I don’t know anyone or know anyone who knows anyone who has this. As for the city, there’s millions of people there, and since you aren’t allowed to visit sick and dying Auntie Em, I doubt anyone there knows anyone either. Not I mention the PCR tests are not 100% accurate. As far as I know the virus (let alone any virus) has ever been isolated or purified and viewed in action under an electron microscope. A virus we apparently know so little about, yet ironically so much, is shitting down the globe. It’s baffling! And they are stating any positive or suspected positive as cause of death to inflate numbers. This isn’t to quell rebelliousness, it’s to instill fear. I’ve been out and about for 2-3 weeks now as an “essential” and haven’t been following the hand washing rules, etc yet I’ve not contracted this so called super contagious killer. Same with my coworkers. So many ready to roll over and play dead and wait for Mr. Gate’s vaccine. I’m not antibacterial, but I’m sure as hell not pro-compulsion.

      Liked by 2 people

      • There is a narrative doing the rounds that some patients who were in a bad way, were simply denied medication for their underlying condition. Insulin for an aged diabetic was that specific example.

        Furthermore they’ve suspended post mortem examinations, meaning the Shipman types we know are in the medical profession can do as they wish to end it for the most vulnerable without fear of being caught.

        I know that in a small number of cases medics are simply complying with what the poor sod wanted. In others I’m not so sure.

        However it happened in China and parts of NYC that homeless people were diagnosed with the virus; taken away in an ambulance and seemingly died before being admitted, or within 24 hrs.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Apologies to all for the long rant again – didn’t mean to but it just lead there when I started typing. Feel free to ignore it, read it or pass it on as you feel fit.

          I have had no faith in the NHS or any of the medical “industry” for a long, long time for various reasons.

          A friend of mine a few weeks ago was visiting someone and he overhead a nurse in a hospital in England stating they are letting patients die with a DNR notice even when they have not been asked about it, I will guess and say to boost numbers of deaths as the official ONS numbers vs a bad flu season do not add up to pandemic.

          Another friend who has an ageing mother contacted me as she had been called by her GP and they tried to browbeat her into agreeing DNR “in case you do get ill and go to hospital”.

          Germany has suspended autopsies on a real flimsy excuse, ripped to shreds by a pathologist – more info on Swiss Propaganda Research Covid-19 page.

          There is an easy way to kill a sick patient in hospital, never gets mentioned, never gets recorded but I know 1st hand it happens a lot – how many people do you know go in and are dead in 3-4 days, normally admitted Friday, dead on Monday? Here’s how – My wife’s friend had major cancer, was admitted to hospital on a Thursday and my wife visited on Friday. All her friend could do was ask for water as she had not been given a drink since admittance the day before and was very weak. My wife gave her a drink and then left a jug of water, a glass and a few bottles of isotonic drink with her. We got a call Monday lunchtime saying she had died that morning. My wife asked the woman’s mother about the drinks and she was told that when the mother visited later the same day there was nothing by the bed an her daughter was complaining of being thirsty. Easy, withhold water for 3 days especially when in a weak condition and they die, no awkward questions as they were dying anyway.

          I was shown the Daily Mail website today, more and more stories on DNR, “prioritising patients” and so on so it is happening on a big scale.

          The NHS is overwhelmed every winter according to the MSM so why idolise them all now? Straight out of the Communist playbook, divide and conquer and have a privileged few (heroes) for the plebs to look up to and emulate and worship. All the stories on “hero” NHS workers and bus drivers etc dying are just too convenient and tick too many boxes.

          Covid-19 is too precise in who is targeted by the various strains that seem at times to be race specific and of different strengths – Asians/Chinese, Persian/Iranian, old and ill, younger with multiple problems and have the sheeple scream “something must be done”. Correlate in with the 5G roll-out and the Agenda 21/2030 playbook and it adds fuel to the fire – I know conspiracy theory nutter, say it I don’t mind.

          This alone says it is fabricated somewhere by someone. The US last I read had all 5 staring, only country that has this.

          Just dangerous enough to get rid of the useless eaters who want their pensions paid, those who have lifetime equity release mortgages for a fraction of the property value (read the small print, 1 person dies or goes into long term care the loan has to be paid in full immediately. How to do that? Sell the house or the bank takes it for a fraction of it’s true value).

          To me it is all a big play for power, nothing else, part of the long-running economic war that is going on.

          I started researching my wife’s medical problems that were getting worse continuously over about 10 years and the normal medical route was completely hopeless and not interested as it could not be cured with a pill you had to be on for life.

          It actually transpired that most of her problems were Electro-magnetic Hypersensitivity, got the hose surveys, took some steps, done research, had a few failures, few successes and she is a lot better, not 100% but a vast improvement. Her neurologist when I last discussed this wth him said that if she improves with these tips we have taken he could get rid of 75% of his patient list as they had exactly the same symptoms and problems as my wife did/does.

          The radiation dangers.com website microwave sickness tab is a good place to start any reading on this topic. David Icke had an informative interview last week and the stateofthenation.co website has lots on 5G.

          Liked by 2 people

          • Have been wondering that myself. Last “news” story I saw said the Holiday Inn was giving councils rooms to house them, then nothing.

            Same in the USA, reports and videos of homeless in LA and San Fransisco being put on buses then not seen again. Las Vegas put 1000 beds for homeless in the new stadium they have there then nothing.

            There are a few drunks from the dole hiding out behind our local job center but their numbers are a lot less than there used to be.

            Depends on what conspiracy theory you want to listen to, personally I don’t think anything good has happened to them once they go into the accommodation but I am jaded and cynical. I just cannot put my finger on facts. If I get any rumours etc I’ll put a comment on.

            I could be wrong, wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last either.

            On a side note and off topic – have you seen the comments being put on and deleted from Bill gate’s Twatter page recently? WOW.

            Liked by 1 person

              • I must admit I never took any interest in the olympics nor in any sport now.

                I gave up watching when I stopped playing rugby after leaving school and the last football match I went to George Best was playing for Hibs.

                A phrase that always stuck in my mind from a long time ago discussing why I lost interest once I stopped playing with someone was his answer – sport is like masturbation, it is better to participate than spectate.

                Liked by 1 person

  5. Here are some numbers:
    Japan has not had a mandatory stay at home policy.

    Japan has 1 per million covid-19 death rate
    UK has a 92 per million coved-19 death rate

    Japan has a population of 126 million and 100 deaths
    UK has 68 million population and about 7300 deaths

    Japan has an average age of 46.3
    UK has an average age 0f 41

    Japan has a population density of 906 per square mile
    UK has a population density of 709 per square mile

    Why does the UK have a stay at home policy?

    Liked by 1 person

  6. What was the population density of the Diamond Princess?, if we think population density is relevant, (Jersey & Guernsey being the most densely populated islands of the UK)

    Liked by 1 person

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